DEEP RESEARCH · SMR SECTOR

Small Modular Reactor Sector Due Diligence

A diligence view of AI power demand, policy support, and execution risk across leading SMR companies

Date: 2025-12-31 · Technology and financial diligence perspective · Original Naver blog post

0. Bottom line first

Official fact: The source highlights NuScale Power's 6GW TVA collaboration, X-energy's more than $1.2 billion of cumulative private capital, Holtec's Palisades restart approval, and Iljin Power's 2025 third-quarter cumulative revenue of KRW 193.1 billion and operating profit of KRW 10.3 billion.

Interpretation: AI data-center power demand and carbon-neutrality constraints are putting nuclear power back on the investment agenda because it can provide dense 24/7 baseload power. SMR, however, still has to pass tests around FOAK cost, fuel supply, and regulatory timelines.

1. Macro: AI power demand and policy support

In 2025, the global energy market sits at the collision point between AI data-center electricity demand and net-zero targets. The source emphasizes that this is not merely a government slogan cycle; hyperscalers such as Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are committing capital because dependable power has become a business requirement.

Data-center electricity consumption is expected to increase by more than 160% by 2030 versus current levels. Generative AI training and inference need uninterrupted high-density power, and intermittent renewables alone cannot guarantee the 99.999% uptime that data centers require.

Official fact: Microsoft's 20-year PPA with Constellation Energy to restart the Three Mile Island nuclear site is used in the source as a directional example of market urgency. Related source links include Constellation announcement and Fox News article.

On policy, the U.S. ADVANCE Act is framed as an effort to modernize advanced-reactor licensing and shorten reviews toward an 18- to 24-month range. The White House and DOE's Genesis Mission is presented as a plan to use AI to optimize reactor design and accelerate commercialization. Korea's 11th Basic Electricity Plan supports the domestic ecosystem with plans to build three large reactors and one SMR by 2038 and raise nuclear's power mix share to 35.6%.

2. Company positioning

The source compares NuScale Power, X-energy, Holtec International, and Iljin Power across technology maturity, financial stability, regulatory risk, and partnerships. My read is that these names should not be treated as one homogeneous SMR basket; each has a different risk profile.

NuScale Power: the regulatory first mover

NuScale is described as the only SMR technology holder with NRC Standard Design Approval. Its 77MWe NuScale Power Module uses passive safety systems that can cool the reactor without operator intervention during loss of power, tying the technology to the safety demands of data-center-adjacent power.

Official fact: As of the end of Q3 2025, cash and equivalents were about $753.8 million, up from $489.9 million in the prior quarter. Roughly $475.2 million of ATM equity issuance helped fund liquidity. Third-quarter revenue was $8.24 million, EPS was -$1.85, and $128.5 million of ENTRA1 partnership milestone costs were reflected.

The TVA collaboration is a 6GW SMR deployment agreement through ENTRA1 with the Tennessee Valley Authority. The source describes this as roughly 72 NuScale power modules and the largest SMR project in U.S. history, with the first plant expected to deliver power around 2030. Romania's RoPower project, which would convert the Doicesti coal plant to SMR generation, is in FEED Phase 2 and targets an FID in 2026-2027.

Interpretation: NuScale's strengths are regulatory first-mover status and utility-scale demand such as TVA. The offsetting risks are cost inflation, as shown by the cancelled UAMPS project, and share overhang from Fluor's stake-sale agreement.

X-energy: HTGR backed by Big Tech capital

X-energy is developing the 80MWe Xe-100 high-temperature gas reactor. Using helium coolant, it can produce heat above 750°C, which expands the market beyond electricity into hydrogen production and petrochemical process heat. Its TRISO-X subsidiary internalizes TRISO fuel manufacturing, which the source treats as an important differentiator.

Official fact: X-energy raised about $700 million in a Jane Street-led Series D and, including Amazon's earlier $500 million Series C-1 round, has secured more than $1.2 billion of cumulative private capital. Amazon, with Energy Northwest in Washington state, is pursuing an initial 320MW and up to 960MW of Xe-100 deployment. Source links: Amazon investment release, X-energy Series D release, and ANS Amazon update.

Korea is central to the execution plan. Doosan Enerbility is a main-equipment manufacturing partner and DL E&C is an EPC partner. The source frames this Team Korea strategy as a way to offset the weakened manufacturing and supply-chain base of Western nuclear companies. Related link: X-energy, Amazon, KHNP, Doosan partnership release.

Holtec and Iljin Power: cash flow and the Korean value chain

Holtec is presented as different from many SMR start-ups because it already generates cash from dry-cask spent-fuel storage and decommissioning. The shift from SMR-160 to a forced-circulation PWR-based SMR-300 is read as a pragmatic choice favoring licensing familiarity and existing component leverage.

Official fact: Holtec received approval to return the Palisades nuclear plant in Michigan to operations and is pursuing Mission 2030 to add two SMR-300 units at the site. The source argues that starting with land, grid access, cooling water, and local acceptance already addressed gives it a speed advantage versus greenfield projects. Links: Holtec Mission 2030 and Palisades operations status.

Iljin Power is extending from routine maintenance for Korean standard nuclear plants and thermal plants into SMR equipment and fusion-tritium supply chains. For Q3 2025 cumulative results, revenue was KRW 193.1 billion, up 22.8% year over year, and operating profit was KRW 10.3 billion, up 88.1%. The source also cites a KRW 16.32 billion order for KAERI's innovative SMR integrated effects test facility and a KRW 23.8 billion TRF equipment contract for Romania's Cernavoda nuclear plant.

3. Competitors and risks: SMR remains an industry to prove

The competitive section separately covers TerraPower and Oklo. TerraPower, founded by Bill Gates, is developing the Natrium sodium-cooled fast reactor at Kemmerer, Wyoming. Completion of the NRC final safety evaluation for the construction permit review ahead of schedule in December 2025 is positive, but HALEU fuel supply remains the major bottleneck. Links: NRC PDF, ANS TerraPower article, and NucNet article.

Oklo, chaired by Sam Altman, is developing the Aurora micro fast reactor. It received DOE safety-design approval for a fuel fabrication facility and selected Kiewit as lead constructor for the Idaho National Laboratory site. The source still flags regulatory work before its 2027-2028 commercialization goal, plus short-seller and valuation controversy. Links: Oklo NRC readiness assessment, Oklo Kiewit selection, and Investing.com article.

4. Investment strategy: prioritize execution over technology labels

The source concludes that SMR has moved from a sector of expectations into a sector of actual orders and construction. I agree that the investment framework should emphasize execution, capital capacity, and confirmed offtakers over reactor novelty alone.

The monitoring list is straightforward: actual Big Tech PPAs, licensing, construction start, fuel loading, fixed-price contract terms, and HALEU supply-chain expansion. The source's proposed hedge is to avoid single-name concentration and diversify across light-water versus non-light-water designs and U.S. versus Korean supply chains.