DEEP RESEARCH · MOLOCO/ADTECH
Moloco and The Trade Desk: AI Moats in Open-Internet AdTech
A comparison of TTD and Moloco across programmatic advertising, retail media, and the post-cookie era
0. Bottom line first
The core capability in open-internet advertising is buying more inventory more transparently and proving performance through better AI. The Trade Desk owns infrastructure standards through UID2, OpenPath, and Kokai, while Moloco supplies an operational-machine-learning performance engine for mobile apps and retail media.
Official fact: The source says 2025 global ad spend is expected to pass USD 1 trillion, with digital approaching roughly 70%. It cites TTD's 2025 Q3 revenue of USD 739 million, 18% YoY growth, 22% growth excluding political advertising, adjusted EBITDA of USD 317 million, and a 43% margin.
Interpretation: TTD is public-market open-internet infrastructure, while Moloco is a private AI performance platform. Together they show that the advertising contest is moving from media ownership to data, identity, AI bidding, and supply-path control.
1. Market background: walled gardens versus open internet
The global advertising industry is moving beyond digital transformation into algorithmic programmatic buying. The source says more than 80% of digital ads are already traded programmatically and that the share could approach 90% in 2026.
Walled gardens such as Google, Meta, and Amazon control data and inventory inside closed platforms. In the open internet, independent DSPs and first-party data matter across web, CTV, and app environments. DOJ antitrust pressure on Google's adtech stack and Europe's DMA are presented as policy tailwinds for independent DSP demand.
2. Company positioning
Operating system for the open internet
An independent DSP that owns no media and represents buyers. The source says it connects to more than 100 ad exchanges and SSPs and processes more than 13 million ad opportunities per second.
Operational-ML performance engine
Founded in Silicon Valley in 2013 by leaders including Ikkjin Ahn, with roots in Google Android and YouTube teams. It expanded from mobile user acquisition to retail media and streaming monetization.
Interpretation: TTD is trying to control standards and supply paths across the ad ecosystem, while Moloco provides companies with an AI engine for specific performance outcomes.
3. Technology moats: Kokai, Operational ML, and UID2
| Axis | The Trade Desk | Moloco |
|---|---|---|
| AI | Kokai applies deep learning to bidding and uses Decision Power Score to show campaign improvement potential. | Operational ML predicts pCVR in real-time transaction environments. |
| Platformization | OpenPath connects directly with premium publishers and reduces SSP intermediation. | RMP and API/white-label solutions help commerce companies build their own ad businesses. |
| Privacy | UID2 provides an encrypted email-based identifier as a post-cookie alternative. | First-party data and performance prediction become more valuable under privacy regulation. |
Official fact: The source says Moloco's deep neural network learns user behavior data to predict installation or purchase probability and uses Google Cloud TPU infrastructure to accelerate training by more than 10x while reducing cost.
4. Market size and growth vectors
| Market | Source figure | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Global advertising | About USD 1 trillion in 2025 and above USD 1.04 trillion in 2026 | The total spend pool is expanding. |
| Programmatic | More than 80% of digital ads, approaching 90% in 2026 | Structural demand for DSPs and AI bidding grows. |
| CTV | USD 33.3bn in 2025, USD 38.0bn in 2026, USD 51.0bn in 2029 | A core TTD growth driver. |
| Retail media | USD 165.9bn in 2025, expected 14-20% growth in 2026 | The strategic field for Moloco RMP. |
5. Financials and valuation
Official fact: TTD's 2026 consensus revenue is cited at about USD 3.35 billion, roughly 16-20% growth versus the 2025 estimate. The source says TTD trades around 15-18x 2025E sales and 40-50x EV/EBITDA.
Official fact: The source says Moloco surpassed USD 200 million in 2023 net revenue and is estimated to have more than USD 1 billion in gross spend. It also cites 12 consecutive profitable quarters, a USD 1.5 billion valuation in the 2021 Series C, and more than USD 2.0 billion in a 2023 secondary transaction.
Interpretation: TTD is a high-margin public infrastructure company already priced at a premium, while Moloco is a rare pre-IPO AI unicorn that has shown both growth and profitability. Customer concentration and ML competition from AppLovin and others remain key risks.
6. Investment conclusion
- TTD: The source presents an Overweight view. UID2, OpenPath, and margins above 40% are the arguments for premium valuation.
- Moloco: The source frames it as a Pre-IPO Top Pick. RMP expansion is the trigger for re-rating from ad company to AI solutions company.
- Shared risks: Delay in Google's cookie policy, ad-budget cuts in a macro slowdown, AI bidding competition, and regulatory changes.
Sources
- Original blog: https://m.blog.naver.com/PostView.naver?blogId=star_of_self&logNo=224117396842
- Source 1: https://www.dentsu.com/news-releases/global-ad-spend-set-to-surpass-one-trillion-for-the-first-time-in-2026-as-the-algorithmic-era-redefines-growth
- Source 2: https://www.brandvm.com/post/2026-marketing-stats-need-to-know
- Source 3: https://www.indexexchange.com/2024/09/16/what-google-antitrust-trial-means-for-ad-tech/
- Source 4: https://www.viantinc.com/insights/blog/google-antitrust-ad-tech-ruling/
- Source 5: https://investors.thetradedesk.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/2025/The-Trade-Desk-Reports-Third-Quarter-2025-Financial-Results/
- Source 6: https://drive.google.com/open?id=1vdcTFRlm60Ll90zwc7NSy8rrUFMcwi6cuad5fnmfvjw
- Source 7: https://www.moloco.com/press-releases/moloco-welcomes-new-investors
- Source 8: https://www.thetradedesk.com/resources/3-steps-for-raising-your-decision-power-score-guide
- Source 9: https://www.moloco.com/blog/the-power-of-machine-learning-in-advertising
- Source 10: https://www.moloco.com/press-releases/moloco-highlights-first-half-2022-continued-growth-and-momentum
- Source 11: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rW38KAFp2Ig
- Source 12: https://www.thetradedesk.com/press-room/the-guardian-partners-with-the-trade-desk-to-enhance-its-digital-advertising-experience-through-openpath
- Source 13: https://www.thecurrent.com/data-privacy-supply-path-spo-advertisers-openpath-publishers-2025
- Source 14: https://cloud.google.com/blog/topics/partners/how-moloco-is-powering-the-future-of-retail-media-with-ai-vector-search
- Source 15: https://www.thetradedesk.com/unified-id-solution-2-0
- Source 16: https://drive.google.com/open?id=1q9nMpwUruDfiIqikN6gAeEPFts1D0pOkVstvUoyldf0
- Source 17: https://www.adpushup.com/blog/walled-garden-in-adtech/
- Source 18: https://www.thetradedesk.com/assets/global/documents/TTD-Sellers-and-Publishers-Report-May-2024.pdf
- Source 19: https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/08/26/thinking-of-buying-the-trade-desk-stock-here-are-2/
- Source 20: https://investors.thetradedesk.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/2025/The-Trade-Desk-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Fiscal-Year-2024-Financial-Results/default.aspx
- Source 21: https://adwave.com/resources/ctv-advertising-forecast-2026
- Source 22: https://adtelligent.com/blog/retail-media-market-outlook/
- Source 23: https://www.advanced-television.com/2025/11/04/report-global-retail-media-ad-market-nears-200bn/
- Source 24: https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/trade-desk-google-monopoly-ruling-could-be-benefit
- Source 25: https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TTD/earnings/estimates
- Source 26: https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nasdaq-ttd/trade-desk/news/is-trade-desk-a-bargain-after-its-69-2025-share-price-slide
- Source 27: https://www.moloco.com/careers
- Source 28: https://drive.google.com/open?id=13VkvDOIh0_r46hAfc2SyYvcNKMbvZVD1sVrPTMishbM