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DEEP RESEARCH · Semiconductor cycle

[Semis] The Chart Everyone Loves — But Something Nags Me

Short note after looking at the DRAM-price chart: can customers actually pay this?

Date: 2025-12-15 · Cycle-perspective musing · Source: Naver Blog

All investment decisions are your own responsibility. This material is research, not a buy or sell recommendation.

0. Bottom line first

The DRAM-price chart looks great — but the real question is whether end customers (especially mainstream consumers) can afford this price. To stretch the cycle further, CapEx beyond expectations is needed; and with prices already this high, IDMs will need extra fuel to break the current trading range. That's why I'd rather position in foundry / design houses than in memory itself.

Below is the chart everyone is "loving" right now.

DRAM price trend chart — sharp upward move

1. The more bullish the chart looks, the bigger the question

Official fact: The chart referenced shows a steep rise in DRAM prices. Consensus reads "cycle boom."

Interpretation: Fine — AI servers can absorb the price. But can mainstream consumer devices? My gut says prices have risen as much as they realistically can. Sure, it's possible we enter a new normal where devices ship with less DRAM and launch new products that way — but will customers actually buy them?

2. What would extend the cycle? — The CapEx variable

Condition

CapEx beyond expectations

For the cycle to run longer, IDM CapEx must overshoot. Breaking out of the range likely requires CapEx in this cycle too.

Paradox

Past-cycle trap

Historically, large CapEx was a top signal. Will it differ this time? It worries me that prices have already moved so far.

Strategy

My positioning

So I lean toward foundry / design houses rather than memory pure-plays. I'll invest when CapEx materially appears. For memory, I'll consider buying only after a confirmed break of prior highs.

3. A note on the mood

Interpretation: Honestly, too many people are bullish. I can barely find a bear — though it's possible the bears just aren't speaking up. When consensus tilts hard one way, sketching out the opposite scenario is the safer move. That's the point of this short memo.

Sources

Naver original