DEEP RESEARCH · SPACE LAUNCH INDUSTRY
Global Space Launch Industry: New Space Value Chains and Korean Opportunities
A structured review of launch-cost decline, SpaceX dominance, satellite communications, space data centers, and specialty-material supply chains.
0. Bottom line first
Space is no longer only exploration or defense. It is a business field connecting launch vehicles, satellite communications, data centers, defense, and specialty materials. The numbers I focus on are artificial space-object launches rising from 210 in 2013 to 2,849 in 2024 and an estimated 5,079 in 2025, plus the $1.8T space-economy forecast for 2035.
Launch volume surge
Artificial space-object launches rose from 210 in 2013 to 2,849 in 2024 and are forecast at 5,079 in 2025.
Cost revolution
Launch costs are already more than 40 times lower than in the 1980s, and Citi forecasts about $100/kg by 2040.
Niche supply chains
HVM, Kenkoa, KAI, and Hanwha Aerospace have opportunities in launch-vehicle materials, components, and systems.
1. Macro environment: a trillion-dollar space economy
New Space is the shift from government-led exploration to a private-sector commercial ecosystem. SpaceX’s reusable launch vehicles, LEO satellite networks, and space data-processing infrastructure are expanding economic activity from Earth’s surface into orbit.
| Institution | Market forecast | Growth drivers |
|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | More than $1.1T by 2040 | Satellite broadband and lower reusable-launch cost |
| Citi | $1T by 2040 | 95% launch-cost decline to $100/kg and new space applications |
| Bank of America | $1.4T by 2030 | Space infrastructure expansion and private investment |
| Space Foundation | $1T by 2032 | Commercial monetization, communications, and observation satellites |
| WEF / McKinsey | $1.8T by 2035 | Integration with supply chains, transport, disaster mitigation, and other industries |
Official fact: The source says commercial activity accounts for 78% of overall space-economy growth, meaning private demand has become a larger growth engine than government spending.
Launch-cost decline is the prerequisite for almost every space business. The source states that today’s launch cost is already more than 40 times lower than in the 1980s, and that Citi expects an additional 95% decline to about $100/kg by 2040. It also includes the more radical possibility of Starship reducing cost to about $10/kg if fully commercialized.
2. Launch services: SpaceX dominance and challengers
Official fact: Falcon 9 recorded 138 launches in 2024, with 173 launches forecast for 2025 and 174 for 2026. The source says 114 of Falcon 9’s 2026 launches are expected to be allocated to Starlink deployment.
- Falcon 9 first-stage boosters have exceeded 20 reuses, supporting SpaceX’s cost advantage.
- Starship is described as having succeeded in booster catch and precise upper-stage splashdown during its 11th flight test in October 2025.
- The source presents SpaceX’s plan to send five Starships carrying Optimus robots to Mars during the late-2026 Mars launch window, plus construction of a Gigabay at Starbase in Texas targeting 1,000 Starships per year.
Blue Origin’s New Glenn is described as succeeding in payload orbit insertion and first-stage sea landing during its second test launch in November 2025. The source also cites a plan to increase New Glenn launches to seven in 2026 and later to 12 to as many as 24 per year. ULA’s Vulcan Centaur and Arianespace’s Ariane 6 are defending market share through Amazon Kuiper launch contracts, and Amazon signed a record 83-launch commercial contract with ULA, Arianespace, and Blue Origin.
3. Downstream: satellite communications and space data centers
Official fact: The source says Starlink operated more than 8,800 satellites as of October 2025 and had surpassed 8 million paid subscribers worldwide.
- Starlink V3.0 satellites are presented as having 1Tbps downlink capacity and AI inference chips for beamforming and signal optimization.
- Direct-to-Cell technology is framed as moving from text service in 2024 to voice and data service in 2025.
- Amazon Leo, formerly Project Kuiper, plans 3,236 satellites and must place half, or 1,618 satellites, into orbit by July 2026 to maintain its FCC license.
Space data centers are presented as an alternative to power and cooling bottlenecks. The 3K, about -270°C, environment of space can reduce cooling energy, and sun-synchronous orbits can support near-continuous solar power. Optical inter-satellite links, or OISL, are framed as the backbone of space data centers. Starcloud is described as launching a satellite with an NVIDIA H100 GPU to test orbital AI computing and planning a 5GW-class space data center in the early 2030s.
4. Upstream: materials and Korean companies
Rocket and satellite performance depends on materials and precision components that can survive extreme environments. Once a company enters that supply chain, it can build a moat through long-term revenue and technical learning.
Superalloys
Nickel-based superalloys such as Inconel retain strength above 700°C and are used in combustion chambers and turbopumps.
High specific strength
Titanium alloys are lighter than steel but strong, making them useful for frames, propellant tanks, and landing legs.
Starship material
SpaceX chose 300-series stainless steel for Starship to balance cost, manufacturability, and cryogenic/high-temperature resistance.
| Company | Source summary | Investor watch point |
|---|---|---|
| HVM | Has VIM/VAR vacuum-melting technology, supplies rocket-engine core materials to a global space company, and space revenue exceeded 50% of sales in Q3 2025 | Seosan Plant 2 expansion and possible 2026 earnings jump |
| Kenkoa Aerospace | Has NASA Artemis component supply history and is expanding customers to SpaceX and Blue Origin through US operations | Special-material processing and US local expansion |
| KAI | Lead company for next-generation launch vehicles and participant in a methane-engine technology consortium for reusable ground-launched space vehicles | Reusable launch vehicle and 6G LEO communications satellite capabilities |
| Hanwha Aerospace | Leads the Nuri upgrade project and has launch-engine production, system-integration capability, and satellite-system verticalization via Satrec Initiative | Launch vehicle and satellite vertical integration |
5. Conclusion and implications
Winner-takes-most
The space industry has high upfront capital and technology barriers, making first-mover advantage powerful. SpaceX already dominates launch vehicles and satellite internet at the same time. Blue Origin and Amazon are chasing with heavy capital, but closing the gap will take time.
Korean survival strategy
Korea should pursue independent launch-vehicle development while also entering global leader supply chains. As HVM and Kenkoa show, supplying core materials and components to SpaceX or Blue Origin can provide both stable revenue and technical learning. Reusable launch-vehicle and methane-engine development led by KAI and Hanwha Aerospace is essential for Korea’s space-power ambitions.
Interpretation: Space is now a business arena, not just an object of admiration. In the countdown toward a trillion-dollar market, I would watch whether companies enter the leading ecosystem and whether they hold irreplaceable material or component technologies.
Sources
- Original Naver Blog post: https://m.blog.naver.com/PostView.naver?blogId=star_of_self&logNo=224109341683
- The New Space Economy | Morgan Stanley: https://www.morganstanley.com/Themes/global-space-economy
- WEF/McKinsey space opportunity: https://www.weforum.org/stories/2024/04/space-economy-technology-invest-rocket-opportunity/
- McKinsey $1.8T space economy report: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/aerospace-and-defense/our-insights/space-the-1-point-8-trillion-dollar-opportunity-for-global-economic-growth
- Space Foundation 2025 Q2 report: https://www.spacefoundation.org/2025/07/22/the-space-report-2025-q2/
- Morgan Stanley final frontier note: https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/digital-twin-factories-2019
- AIAA $1T by 2040 note: https://aiaa.org/2022/05/23/space-industry-expected-to-reach-1t-in-revenue-by-2040/
- CitiGPS Space: https://www.citigroup.com/global/insights/space_20220509
- Space Foundation 2022 opportunities: https://www.spacefoundation.org/2022/10/11/space-industry-growth-where-are-the-opportunities-in-2022/
- Aerospace America SpaceX Mars plan: https://aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org/aiaa-spacex/
- SpaceExplored New Glenn 2026 goals: https://spaceexplored.com/2025/11/29/what-are-blue-origins-new-glenn-goals-for-2026/
- Wikipedia New Glenn launches: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_New_Glenn_launches
- eoPortal Project Kuiper: https://www.eoportal.org/satellite-missions/projectkuiper
- HVM analysis prompt: https://drive.google.com/open?id=1JfYrh5_Pi-u0WjiHQejCxbA238ekRLe9FdsfWzAKRQs
- FerroTimes HVM aerospace alloy contract extension: https://www.ferrotimes.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=45168
- Wolyo KAI and Sphere stock reaction: https://www.wolyo.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=305643
- Etoday Kenkoa aerospace expansion: https://www.etoday.co.kr/news/view/2442070
- Energy Economy KAI reusable methane engine: https://m.ekn.kr/view.php?key=20251212029197307
- NewDaily KAI methane engine 49.1B project: https://biz.newdaily.co.kr/site/data/html/2025/12/11/2025121100367.html
- NewsSpace KAI and ETRI cooperation: https://www.newsspace.kr/news/article.html?no=5351
- Hanwha Aerospace shared-growth zone: https://m.hanwhaaerospace.com/kor/media/newsroom/view.do?seq=531