DEEP RESEARCH · SEMICONDUCTORS/EQUIPMENT & MATERIALS

Is a Legacy CAPEX Cycle Really Coming?

A review of the memory investment cycle and equipment/materials basket strategy based on an SK Securities IT equipment/materials report

Written: 2025-09-05 · Semiconductor CAPEX-cycle perspective · Original Naver Blog post

0. Bottom line first

1. My first reaction

I read the report today and, because I do not know the legacy cycle well, I am recording it as the start of studying it. I am not actually sure whether a legacy cycle will come, and part of me thinks simply holding Park Systems or Samsung Electronics may be enough.

Interpretation: I also wonder whether the time would be better spent studying industries and companies that keep growing without a cycle. In this cycle in particular, many factories are being built in the U.S., so I question whether they may use U.S. equipment vendors because maintenance is easier. If U.S. government pressure is also possible, investing around companies with irreplaceable equipment may be better.

2. Report core: a four-year investment cycle

Official fact: The source records an SK Securities IT equipment/materials report by Lee Dong-ju titled “IT Equipment/Materials (Overweight), Run, materials and equipment!” The report says memory investment is surging in 2025, following 2013, 2017, and 2021, because AI training and inference are driving explosive high-performance semiconductor demand. The stated numbers are DRAM +54% and NAND +14%.

3. Manufacturer investment roadmaps

Official fact: The source says memory manufacturers’ investment roadmaps for this year and next year are becoming more concrete. Samsung Electronics P4 DRAM is 60K/M, split into D1b 15K and D1c 45K. P4 NAND is V9 15K, with V10 orders in 2Q26. SK hynix M15X is scheduled for November completion at 60-70K/M.

4. U.S. non-memory expansion and possible return to Korea

Official fact: U.S. non-memory expansion plans are also growing. The source notes an additional $100 billion for TSMC’s Arizona fab and more than $40 billion cumulatively for Samsung Electronics’ Taylor fab, with an initial 20K/M. It also mentions the possibility that the U.S. withdrawal of Samsung and SK hynix VEU status could lead investment back to Korea.

5. How to view materials and equipment in a CAPEX cycle

Official fact: The report says basket buying of materials and equipment is the standard approach in a CAPEX cycle. Historically, equipment stocks formed bottoms at the early stage of Samsung Electronics memory CAPEX expansion, while materials and parts rose with a 3-6 month lag. The conclusion is that sentiment is improving across the materials/equipment chain.

6. Stock views and attached reports

Official fact: The source says Wonik IPS and Komico remain existing top picks, while Park Systems and Unisem are newly added top picks. It also records EO Technics and TES as recommended names with new momentum in materials and equipment.

The industry report URL is https://buly.kr/5q7uIul.

7. My checklist

• Whether the legacy CAPEX cycle actually turns into orders and earnings
• Whether U.S. fabs prefer U.S. equipment over Korean, Japanese, or European equipment
• Whether companies with irreplaceable equipment are a better choice than cyclical materials/equipment basket names
• Whether Park Systems, Samsung Electronics, and the report-mentioned companies are each worth studying