DEEP RESEARCH · ASSET ALLOCATION
Lee Han-young’s Market Response View
A simplified market response note on earnings season, order-backed industries, and Korean equity allocation
0. Bottom line first
The market is a complex system, but the response should be simple. This year, Non-US markets, especially Korea, look more attractive than the US. The allocation frame separates rebound candidates such as semiconductors and IT, existing leaders such as shipbuilding, defense, and cosmetics, and lower-tariff-correlation sectors such as KEPCO, casinos, and entertainment.
1. Starting Point From the Source
The reference video is Infomax Live on April 16, 2025. People call markets complex systems, but I think they should always be viewed simply. Lee Han-young’s view is as follows.
Official fact: The linked video description identifies the broadcast as a 7 p.m. program on Wednesday, April 16, 2025, with guests including Lee Han-young of Vogo Fund Asset Management.
2. Earnings Season and Profit Consensus
Earnings season is approaching. The difference from Trump’s first term is that back then the story was only semiconductors, while this cycle has more improving sectors: shipbuilding, power equipment, defense, nuclear, entertainment, and others.
| Period | Key point |
|---|---|
| 2025 | Consensus profit growth of 20% |
| 2026 | Consensus profit growth in the 10% range |
| 2027 | Consensus profit growth in the 10% range |
| Reliability | Because many industries are order-backed, earnings visibility is viewed as more reliable than a semiconductor-only consensus |
Interpretation: Until 2024, sectors excluding semiconductors and secondary batteries looked good. From this year, or at least from next year, semiconductors may begin turning, while the existing order-backed industries still have solid orders.
3. Korean Manufacturing and Valuation Support
Tier-1 manufacturers
Korea has many globally competitive tier-1 manufacturers.
0.8x PBR
The earnings basis across multiple sectors is seen as supporting Korea’s 0.8x PBR level.
KEPCO
KEPCO was mentioned as a company whose profit could rise 80% this year even without an electricity-rate increase.
Since Trump’s first term, Korean companies have invested heavily in the US, and the cycle of recovering those investments may now be approaching. Secondary batteries are expected to start operating from 2025, and if negotiations go well compared with other countries, Korea may have enough conditions to benefit from trickle-down effects.
4. Sector Allocation Frame for a Rebound
The question in a future rebound is which industries to focus on: oversold names, or existing leaders such as shipbuilding and defense. Autos are not discussed because restructuring in the global auto industry is not yet complete.
Oversold sectors should not be bought all at once; they should be accumulated gradually. Entertainment looks relatively comfortable.
5. Portfolio Principle for Individual Investors
This year looks more favorable for Non-US than the US, and Korea looks attractive. Since the Korean market tends to move within a box range, acting opposite to sentiment may make this a workable cycle from this year onward.
Interpretation: Individual investors do not need more than three stocks. The portfolio should consist only of names I know well and can buy more of even after they fall.
I always view persuasive arguments through a simple lens.
Sources
- Original post: https://m.blog.naver.com/PostView.naver?blogId=star_of_self&logNo=223836181165
- Infomax Live video: https://www.youtube.com/live/vvt_b71-wJ8?si=jh2FPOPpD8VzLuWc