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DEEP RESEARCH · LONG-TERM US TREASURIES

Long-term US Treasuries may be the biggest beneficiary of the Trump era

An asset-allocation memo on using the 10-year Treasury yield as the signal for staged long-bond buying.

Published: 2025-03-03 · Asset-allocation memo · Naver Blog

Investment decisions are your responsibility. This material is research, not a recommendation to buy or sell.

0. Bottom line first

In my view, the biggest beneficiary of the Trump era may be long-term US Treasuries. I am not saying to buy immediately, but I think accumulating whenever yields rise could generate returns.

I think Bessent has already given the answer by openly saying he only watches the 10-year US Treasury yield. I even think some degree of recession could be tolerated.

Chart image referenced for long-term US Treasury investment judgment

1. The buying criterion is the yield level

I do not currently hold the position, but using the chart, I would like to start buying little by little if the 10-year yield rises to around 4.3%. The key is staged entry based on the yield level, not simply the bond price.

Long-term US Treasury approachViewing yield increases as staged buying opportunities
IndicatorUS 10-year Treasury
Interest zoneAround 4.3%
MethodBuy a little as yields rise
RiskGrowth and rate volatility
Long bonds are an asset-allocation card that can benefit if yields later fall

2. Earlier US Treasury thesis

The reason to invest in US Treasuries continues from the earlier post: The time for US Treasuries in a personal pension account.

Linked image for earlier personal-pension US Treasury post

Interpretation: This memo views long-term Treasuries not just as a safe asset, but as an asset that may profit from policy and economic-cycle changes. The entry yield and staged buying discipline matter more than simply deciding to buy.

Sources

Naver original