DEEP RESEARCH · COMMERCIAL ACT REVISION AND ASSET ALLOCATION
The Democratic Party’s Commercial Act Revision Is Coming
An asset-allocation memo looking about one year ahead at the possibility of corporate-value re-rating after political events
0. Bottom line first
At this point, whether through an interim cabinet or impeachment, I think the political balance afterward is likely to give more force to the Democratic Party. If so, the Commercial Act revision the party has discussed should be viewed as coming.
Interpretation: The core of this note is not a long-term forecast but an investment horizon of about one year. There may be short-term fluctuations, but I see this as a period when companies I already liked can be reviewed without going too deep into valuation.
1. Political change and the investment horizon
I think this is less a time to look at a very long flow and more a time to look roughly one year ahead. If Democratic Party policy momentum grows after the political event, the Commercial Act revision becomes an important variable for investors to monitor.
2. The nature of the buy candidates
There may be short-term ups and downs. Still, I think the current period may be a good time to buy companies I normally consider good, even without going deeply into valuation.
About one year
The focus is a near-term period in which political and institutional change can be reflected, not a very long cycle.
Companies I already liked
I read this as a phase to revisit existing watchlist names at better prices rather than chase a new theme.
U.S. Treasuries in pension
Because I do not have much cash, I am considering using U.S. Treasuries in my pension as collateral to shift some exposure into stocks.
3. Portfolio action
I do not have much cash, but I am thinking about converting a bit into stocks using the U.S. Treasuries in my pension as collateral. The point is to use Commercial Act revision expectations as a reason to revisit companies that may benefit from better governance.