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DEEP RESEARCH · HOWARD MARKS

[Newspaper] Howard Marks Interview

Reading notes on AI investing, the Korean market, inflation and long-term bonds, and diversification

Published: 2024-11-22 · Interview memo · Naver Blog

Investment decisions are your own responsibility. This material is research and is not a recommendation to buy or sell.

0. Bottom line first

Howard Marks always says not to be certain. He says leaving the Korean market now is not the right long-term choice and that this is a time to pay attention to price. I also read the message that AI stocks are expensive and that investors should diversify rather than concentrate everything in one stock.

1. Core message of the interview

JoongAng Ilbo Howard Marks interview link image

Official fact: The original post shared a JoongAng Ilbo interview with Howard Marks (https://www.joongang.co.kr/article/25293992). The link title refers to the investment legend praised by Buffett discussing AI investing and the dot-com bubble.

Interpretation: The main point I took away is to beware of excessive certainty. At the same time, I read it as saying that leaving the Korean market now is not the right long-term choice and that investors should focus on price.

2. Tension with my portfolio

He said not to buy long-term bonds if inflation seems likely. I hold U.S. long-term bonds. He also said U.S. AI stocks are expensive and advised diversification rather than going all-in on one stock. I hold U.S. AI stocks and Korean stocks.

Interpretation: I do not think U.S. inflation will come back. Still, Howard Marks is someone I would prefer not to take the opposite side of if possible. So from the perspective of diversifying between stocks and bonds, I will keep holding them.

3. Summary

  • Lower conviction and focus on price.
  • Recheck whether exiting the Korean market is right for the long term.
  • Recognize valuation pressure in U.S. AI stocks.
  • Keep reviewing long-term bonds together with the inflation view.
  • Maintain diversification across stocks and bonds rather than concentrating in one stock.

I enjoyed the Howard Marks interview. Thanks Howard & JoongAng.

Sources

Naver original