DEEP RESEARCH · SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS MONTHLY
[Industry] Samsung Electronics Monthly Chart Analysis
Checking oversold monthly-chart zones, DRAM competition, 1x PBR, and RSI before judging a bottom-buying point
0. Bottom line first
In previous DRAM-related oversold phases, Samsung Electronics touched 1x PBR and then rose. This time, however, the emergence of Chinese competitors and Samsung's weaker position in HBM may make it harder to hold 1x PBR. Monthly RSI is also not yet in oversold territory, so I think it is not too late to consider bottom buying after monthly RSI becomes oversold.
1. Oversold zones on the monthly chart
This time I am analyzing Samsung Electronics' monthly chart. I marked the major oversold zones on the monthly chart with numbers and highlighted semiconductor-related phases in yellow.
Official fact: The original post summarizes that in past DRAM-related oversold phases, Samsung Electronics touched 1x PBR and then rose.
2. Why this cycle looks different
Interpretation: This time, the DRAM-related issue includes the emergence of Chinese competitors. In the past, the market could be viewed as a defined three-player competitive structure; this time there is a new-competitor issue.
In the 2022 semiconductor oversold phase, Samsung Electronics seems to have been too naive in a harsh international business environment and left room for competitors to intervene. I think the result of not tightly emphasizing its strengths and fighting the volume battle is now unfolding.
3. Concern over management and competitive intensity
Interpretation: Samsung Electronics' problem is not only HBM. I think it is also a management-mindset issue: not treating competition with the determination to crush competitors. If management keeps watching the U.S. government and Korean politics and cannot make proper decisions, I question whether it can survive in a harsh global arena.
Personally, now that China has been given room to enter the DRAM market, I think it will be difficult to maintain 1x PBR, and the cycle may change from a two-year cycle into a different pattern.
Chinese DRAM competitor
A new competitor could disrupt the historical 1x PBR rebound pattern.
Weak HBM edge
This is viewed as one reason Samsung may struggle to compete aggressively in DRAM volume.
Beneficiaries
It may be better to focus on companies that benefit from the changed cycle.
4. RSI and bottom-buying judgment
In addition, the current RSI indicator is not in an oversold phase. I think it is not too late to look for bottom buying after RSI reaches oversold territory on the monthly chart.
Interpretation: I do not know when RSI will become oversold, but after that, the PBR band may be more likely to form at a lower level than in the past. Of course, this cycle could still bounce after touching 1x PBR, but for now I view it more conservatively.
5. For reference
That is all. Please refer to this for work.
Sources
- Naver Blog original: https://m.blog.naver.com/PostView.naver?blogId=star_of_self&logNo=223616016054